Think tank warns that weapons shortfalls could leave American forces vulnerable in a future conflict – and Chinese observers agree
Stockpiles of Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) and Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) ship-launched interceptors have also dropped significantly, according to a report published by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the US military has expended between 40 and 70 of its 90 Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), the most advanced munition developed for the Himars multiple rocket launchers.
The think tank report also revealed that more than a quarter of the 3,100 Tomahawk cruise missiles and nearly a quarter of the 4,400 stealth Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) were fired.
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The CSIS warned that the depletion would further constrain US forces should a conflict arise in the near term, given insufficient pre-war inventories. “A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates.”
While the Pentagon had signed a series of contracts that would help to expand missile production this year, delivery timelines to replace these seven systems would be three to five years, even with the increased capacity, the report said.
Chinese analysts said the US military’s munitions shortage was because of insufficient foresight in Washington and poor preparation for the conflict, as well as America’s weak industrial base.
“The US defence industrial base is still facing the problem of insufficient production capacity … their production speed can never keep up with the US military’s rate of consumption,” military expert Wei Dongxu told state broadcaster CCTV.
The US would have significant technical shortcomings when dealing with a higher intensity war with a more capable adversary, Wei said, noting that diversified investment and dispersed resources in the US defence industry had hampered its production capacity.
Military researcher Liu Yi noted that because of the US military’s assumption of a short and decisive war, preparation and procurement of offensive munitions had far outpaced their defensive counterparts.
In an analysis published by the military magazine Modern Ships, Liu echoed the CSIS report, which revealed higher consumption rate of defensive munitions, such as THAAD, Patriot and SM-3, compared with offensive munitions.
“This has caused the entire US military apparatus to face extremely high costs for air defence and interception when confronting Iran’s counter-attacks – an outcome that is highly uneconomic in an asymmetric conflict,” Liu said.
Liu added that less than three weeks into the war, the US military had already expended more interceptor missiles than its scheduled procurement for the entire year of 2026. “As Stalin has said, quantity has a quality all its own.”
As part of its 2027 budget, the Pentagon wants to spend more than US$30 billion on critical munitions, including missile interceptors, whose stockpiles have become critically low during the Iran war, Associated Press reported on Tuesday.
Jules Hurst, acting undersecretary of defence and the Pentagon’s comptroller, said on Tuesday that the budget was formulated before the war on Iran, the report said.